Airbus.
Airbus Global Freighter Market Forecast: The global fleet of dedicated cargo aircraft is expected to expand significantly over the next two decades, as growing international trade, rising demand for high-technology goods and the continued growth of e-commerce reshape the air freight industry.
According to Airbus’ 2026 Cargo Global Market Forecast, the worldwide fleet of dedicated freighter aircraft is projected to increase from 2,360 aircraft in 2026 to 3,460 by 2045, representing growth of around 46%. The forecast was announced in Toulouse, France, on 21 October 2026, at the Cargo Facts Symposium.
The outlook highlights the important role air cargo is expected to play in global supply chains, particularly for goods that need to reach customers quickly. It also points to a substantial requirement for replacement aircraft as older freighters are retired and operators invest in more fuel-efficient models.
Airbus estimates that the industry will require 2,670 freighter aircraft over the forecast period to meet both replacement needs and expanding demand. The figure includes newly built aircraft and passenger aircraft converted for cargo operations, reflecting the different ways airlines can increase their freight capacity.
Why is the global freighter fleet expected to grow?
Air cargo is a relatively small part of global trade when measured by weight, but its economic importance is considerably greater than that figure suggests.
Airbus estimates that air freight carries less than 1% of global trade by volume, yet accounts for more than 30% of trade by value. This reflects the types of products commonly transported by air: high-value electronics, computing equipment, pharmaceuticals, urgent industrial components and other goods for which speed and reliability are essential.
For many businesses, the ability to move products quickly across continents can be more important than the cost of transport alone. Delays can disrupt manufacturing, postpone product launches or leave retailers without stock during periods of high demand.
Airbus expects long-term global trade to grow at an annual compound rate of 2.9%, while air cargo traffic is forecast to expand by 3.2% a year over the next two decades.
The projected growth in air freight is therefore slightly faster than the expected expansion of trade overall. This suggests that businesses may continue to rely increasingly on air transport for selected products, even as other goods move by sea, rail or road.
The forecast also takes account of the challenges facing the industry, including high fuel prices, geopolitical disruption and supply chain constraints. Despite these pressures, Airbus expects demand for dedicated cargo aircraft to remain strong.
High-tech goods and e-commerce drive demand
One of the most striking developments highlighted in the forecast is the growing importance of high-technology goods in air freight.
Airbus says the value of computers and other high-tech products transported by air has doubled over the past three years, reaching 15% of air cargo value in 2026.
This trend reflects the growing importance of electronics in the global economy, from computers and communications equipment to components used in advanced manufacturing. Such products can be expensive, time-sensitive and vulnerable to the commercial consequences of delayed delivery, making air transport an attractive option.
E-commerce is another important driver. Online retailers and their logistics partners depend on extensive transport networks to move products between manufacturing centres, distribution hubs and consumers. International online shopping can create demand for air freight, particularly when customers expect short delivery times.
Air cargo can also provide an alternative to maritime shipping for some products. Although air transport generally costs more, it can help businesses avoid long shipping times or respond to unexpected changes in demand.
However, air freight is unlikely to replace sea transport for most high-volume, low-value goods. Instead, the two modes serve different needs, with companies choosing between them according to cost, urgency, product characteristics and supply chain requirements.
Why airlines need 2,670 additional freighters
Airbus‘ forecast identifies a requirement for 2,670 freighter aircraft, divided between replacing ageing aircraft and accommodating market growth.
Of this total, 1,580 aircraft will be needed primarily to replace older models, while 1,090 will support growth in cargo capacity.
The distinction matters because fleet expansion is not simply about adding more aircraft to the global total. Operators must also retire older freighters as they become less economical to maintain or operate.
Airbus expects the required aircraft to fall into three broad categories:
1,140 single-aisle freighters, suited to shorter routes and smaller cargo loads.
860 mid-size widebody freighters, which provide greater capacity for medium- and long-haul operations.
670 large widebody freighters, designed to carry substantial cargo volumes on major international routes.
The forecast includes 970 new-build freighters and 1,700 aircraft converted from passenger service.
This means passenger-to-freighter conversions will account for the larger share of projected requirements. Conversions allow operators to reuse existing aircraft by modifying their interiors, reinforcing relevant structures and installing cargo doors and other equipment needed for freight operations.
For airlines and specialist cargo operators, converted aircraft can offer a practical way to increase capacity without purchasing an entirely new aircraft. New-build freighters, meanwhile, can offer modern technology, improved efficiency and designs optimised for cargo operations.
North America and Asia-Pacific lead regional demand
The forecast points to North America and Asia-Pacific as the largest sources of demand for freighter aircraft over the next two decades.
Region | Aircraft required |
|---|---|
| North America | 925 |
| Asia-Pacific | 850 |
| Europe and CIS | 515 |
| Latin America | 165 |
| Middle East | 125 |
| Africa | 90 |
North America is forecast to require 925 freighters, while Asia-Pacific will need 850. Together, the regions account for 1,775 aircraft, or approximately two-thirds of the total projected requirement.
Their prominence reflects the scale of their economies, manufacturing networks and international trading links. Both regions have major cargo hubs and extensive connections between production centres and consumer markets.
Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are expected to require 515 aircraft. Latin America follows with 165, while the Middle East is forecast to need 125 and Africa 90.
These figures represent projected demand for aircraft deliveries over the forecast period, rather than the total number of freighters that will operate in each region in 2045.
Airbus also identifies Asia-Pacific as the leading region for international air cargo traffic. Routes between Asia-Pacific and North America are expected to record annual growth of 3.8%, making them the fastest-growing major corridor highlighted in the forecast, followed by routes connecting Asia-Pacific with Europe.
These busy routes will require aircraft capable of carrying substantial loads efficiently over long distances.
Airbus forecasts global freighter fleet to reach 3,460 aircraft by 2045.
The role of the A350F and passenger-to-freighter conversions
Aircraft efficiency is expected to become increasingly important as cargo operators expand their fleets.
Airbus points to the A350F, its next-generation large freighter, as one aircraft designed to serve the evolving requirements of the industry. The manufacturer says the aircraft is suited to major international cargo routes, including those linking Asia-Pacific with North America.
New-generation freighters are intended to help operators improve fuel efficiency and reduce carbon emissions compared with older aircraft. This is commercially important because fuel is a major operating expense for airlines, while environmental performance is becoming an increasingly significant consideration for the aviation industry.
Passenger-to-freighter conversions will also remain an important part of fleet renewal. Airbus identifies the A320, A321 and A330 families as aircraft platforms that can be converted for cargo operations.
Single-aisle conversions can serve shorter routes and regional distribution networks, while converted widebodies can provide the capacity needed for longer international journeys.
Nevertheless, fleet renewal will require substantial investment. Operators must balance aircraft acquisition costs, fuel savings, maintenance requirements and expected cargo revenues when deciding whether to purchase new aircraft or convert existing passenger jets.
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A growing market, but challenges remain
Airbus’ forecast suggests that cargo aviation is entering a period of sustained demand for additional capacity and more efficient aircraft. The combination of expanding trade, high-value technology shipments, e-commerce and fleet replacement is expected to support demand across different aircraft sizes and regions.
Yet the industry’s growth will depend on wider economic conditions. Fuel prices, geopolitical tensions, trade restrictions and disruptions to supply chains can affect both cargo volumes and operating costs. Airlines must also ensure that new capacity can be supported by profitable routes and sufficient customer demand.
Environmental pressures will remain another important consideration. More efficient aircraft can help reduce fuel consumption and emissions per unit of cargo carried, but the overall environmental impact of air freight will also depend on how quickly older aircraft are replaced and how rapidly traffic grows.
The central message of Airbus’ 2026 forecast is that the future of air cargo will depend on both expansion and modernisation. The industry is expected to need thousands of freighters over the next two decades, not only to carry more goods but also to replace ageing aircraft with more efficient alternatives.
For aircraft manufacturers, airlines and cargo operators, the challenge will be to turn that projected demand into sustainable, commercially viable capacity while keeping global supply chains moving.
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