Airbus MRTT Tanker.
Airbus Global Market Forecast: Airbus projects a 45% increase in the global dedicated freighter aircraft fleet over the next 20 years, reaching 3,420 aircraft by 2044. This growth includes 815 existing freighters and 2,605 additional units, which will serve both replacement and expansion needs.
Of the 2,605 new freighters, 1,530 are slated as replacements for older models, while 1,075 will meet growth demands. The new aircraft will be divided among 1,120 small freighters, 855 mid-size widebodies, and 630 large widebodies. Airbus expects that 1,670 of these will be conversions from passenger planes, with 935 being new-build freighters.
Underlying this expansion is a forecasted annual air cargo growth rate of 3.3%, surpassing the 2.7% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for trade. Air cargo has become indispensable—not only for supporting global economies but also for connecting remote areas, transporting critical health supplies, and fostering business development in emerging markets.
Following a surge in freighter fleet growth during the pandemic, driven by numerous passenger-to-freighter conversions and low retirements of older aircraft, Airbus anticipates a shift. Many older freighters will now be phased out and replaced by newer, more fuel-efficient models such as the A350F and A320/A321 and A330 P2F conversions.
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Geographic shifts in air cargo demand are also expected, as the Asia-Pacific region strengthens its role as an industrial hub. Emerging consumer economies like Brazil, Indonesia, and Vietnam will reshape global air freight patterns. Asia-Pacific and North America will dominate future demand, together accounting for nearly two-thirds of the 2,605 additional freighters needed, with forecasts calling for 850 and 920 aircraft respectively.
This outlook underscores the vital role air freight will continue to play in global trade and economic connectivity over the next two decades.
